"It has become urgent to review Palestine's international standing before matters reach the point of no return," writes Hani al-Masri in the leading Palestinian daily al-Ayyam.
This is especially necessary in light of the very negative developments that have occurred in the recent past as a malignant fruit of the state of war, fragmentation, and division that the Arab region has been witnessing.
These developments have taken the shape of rewarding Israel rather than punishing it by electing it to the presidency of the UN General Assembly's Legal [Sixth] Committee after 109 countries voted in its favor, including four Arab states. In addition, the International Quartet has just issued a biased report bringing the international position to an unprecedented low. This threatens dire consequences unless Palestinian action rises to the challenge, especially if the Quartet's position were to be adopted by the UN Security Council, in which case Palestine would be threatened with the loss of international legitimacy’s support.
The spate of negative developments include Israel’s infiltration of a number of Arab states based on the pretext of a common interest in combating 'Sunni terrorism' and the 'Iranian/Persian/Shiite threat.' In fact, matters have reached a point where we are approaching the kind of ‘regional solution’ proposed by Avigdor Lieberman before he became Israeli Defense Minister, one that the Israeli government has now adopted. This is taking the form of promoting Arab/Israeli peace as a prelude to a Palestinian/Israeli peace, after decades in which the Arabs have insisted on the priority of resolving the Palestinian problem and securing an Israeli withdrawal from the occupied Arab territories before any normalization of Arab/Israeli relations.
In effect, the Arabs will be used to pressure the Palestinians into offering concessions. And this means that any negotiations to resolve the Palestinian problem can be used as cover for normalizing Arab relations with Israel. The result will not be a balanced or patriotic solution, but the liquidation of the Palestinian cause by implementing Israel’s preferred solution, or by shelving the cause until further notice.
One should add to all this, Egyptian President 'Abdelfattah el-Sissi's initiative that is meant to transform the current 'cold peace' with Israel into a 'warm' one, resume Palestinian/Israeli negotiations, and bring about inter-Palestinian [Fatah/Hamas] reconciliation. This initiative was behind Sissi's foreign minister’s recent visit to Tel Aviv, the first of its kind in nine years, amidst growing talk of bringing Netanyahu and Sissi together and a tripartite (Palestinian/Israeli/Egyptian) summit that will act as the prelude for Palestinian/Israeli negotiations under Egyptian and Jordanian sponsorship. This means that the Arabs could become mediators in the conflict.
In addition to all this, we have Israel’s penetration of Africa after Netanyahu's recent visit that has brought Israel closer to securing observer member status in the African Union, thus raising the prospect of losing the largest regional bloc that supports the Palestinian cause.
The Turkish/Israeli reconciliation also falls within the same negative context. One of its preconditions is that neither side should undertake any action on the international scene that could harm the other, which would neutralize Turkish support for Palestinian rights.
Furthermore, we have the warm relationship between Russia and Israel, which includes giving the Russian Bear a free hand in Syria, provided that Tel Aviv's security and strategic interests are safeguarded in return. Moscow will thus turn a blind eye to what Israel is doing to the Palestinians, which may explain why the International Quartet's recent report was issued without eliciting any Russian protest.
And over and above all this, are Israel's achievements in its relations with India, China, the Eastern European countries, and other states that were once known for their support for the Palestinian cause and their opposition to Israel.
In light of all the above, we must wake up and end the self-deception and state of denial that have characterized the Palestinians’ official discourse (backed at the Arab level) regarding our alleged diplomatic victories. This discourse is being promoted by prepaid media tools and intellectuals, academics and commentators who automatically praise everything the rulers may say, even if this leads to the kind of devastation that the Arab region is currently witnessing. For Israel is not facing suffocating and unbearable isolation as they claim. Nor, in the best of cases, is it facing a predicament that is no less serious than that facing the Palestinians and Arabs.
This does not mean that the past phase has not witnessed any achievements. But these cannot be compared to the negative aspects mentioned above. Nor does it mean that the horizon is now totally occluded; in fact, the prospects for future action are positive, provided that there is the necessary conviction and will. For it is neither inevitable nor is it our unavoidable fate, to succumb to the scheme to liquidate the Palestinian cause.
There is no comparison between the Palestinian and Arab predicament on the one hand, and Israel’s predicament, on the other. The former threat is existential in nature. One hundred years after the Sykes/Picot agreement, the region's map is being redrawn by dividing up its nations, alongside a serious attempt to liquidate or defer the Palestinian cause under further notice. The latter threat, by contrast, is a predicament of how to advance and grasp the historical opportunity to achieve what Israel has failed to do so far.
True, this may speed up Israel's arrival at the endgame, because it would be swallowing what it cannot digest, and because it would remain an alien body that region will ultimately eject, no matter how long this may take. But in the immediate and medium term, Israel will be in an enviable situation. The strategic threats posed by the Arab armies, Arab solidarity, and the Palestinian revolution that became an international liberation movement when Palestine was the Arabs' central cause, have withered away. As for the remaining threats from Iran, Hizbollah, Hamas, and organizations such ISIS, their attention now is diverted away from Israel by other wars and issues.
After awakening from our self-deception, and after comprehending the true nature of what is happening and preparing to confront the consequences of the raging Arab fires for the Palestinian cause, we must discard the illusion that a solution is now at hand, or that it is possible to maintain the current situation if we were only to pursue the same path that has brought us where we are today. For the wager on others is certain to be lost, especially when the Palestinians stand alone in the weakest of conditions, with no real and strong allies, after they have abandoned and disregarded their allies across the entire globe, and when, together with their Arab allies, they have focused all their efforts on winning the approval of Washington and Tel Aviv.
The most that the current efforts may produce – from the 'French initiative' to 'Sissi's initiative,' to the renewed talk of the [2002/07] 'Arab Peace Initiative'– would be the resumption of bilateral negotiations under merely formal international cover and total American domination. And these negotiations will be convened under a ceiling that is lower than that of international legitimacy, as we have noted from the International Quartet's statement and the 'French initiative' that will produce nothing better than the Quartet especially since France has done everything possible to appease Israel, and after the EU has backed the Quartet's recommendations and expressed its support for adopting them in the Security Council
It is not possible to keep the cause alive and preserve what remains of our gains and means of influence, or to reduce the damage and loss and maintain the current situation, without adopting a comprehensive vision that paves the way for a new approach. This should be based on giving priority to the Palestinian factor, strengthening it and achieving national reconciliation, and focusing on changing the balance of power via long-term cumulative action as a precondition for influencing others.
We live in a world that only understands the language of power and interests. Anyone who is not fluent in these two languages (or at least one of them) should refrain from political action. When the means of power and the ability to influence interests are available, morals, principles and international law and legitimacy can play an important role in serving the Palestinians' interest. But reliance on the strategy of diplomatic action alone or as a primary means, would at best be a waste of valuable time at a point when time comes at the cost of blood, rights, and the fate of a nation.
The current moment is not suitable for achieving national solutions or for securing major attainments. However, if the appropriate political and struggle strategy were to be adopted, it is suitable for ensuring that the cause remains alive, allowing the people to stand firm and remain on their land. And it may be appropriate for redefining our national project in light of the accumulation of experience, facts, developments, and challenges.
We may be unable to impose a Palestinian solution, even if that happens to be the establishment of a state on only part of Palestine's soil. But we are certainly able to foil the Israeli solution, if we do not abandon our rights by offering new concessions.
"That in itself would be the greatest achievement at this juncture because it represents the maximum that is achievable and paves the way to pursuing the struggle to ensure the success of our national solution that is certain to come," concludes Masri.